MOST AUTOMAKERS OFF TARGET

Japanese giants ‘far off the mark’

Most automakers will fail to make enough EVs to meet Paris Agreement climate goals.

Only two of the world’s 12 top automakers plan to make enough electric vehicles by 2030 to stay in step with Paris Agreement climate goals.

Globally, more than half of all new vehicles coming off of production lines in 2029 would need to be electric for the sector to be compliant with the goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, according to Influence Map, a research NGO that evaluates corporate climate goals and policies.

At the same time, 11 of the 12 carmakers — while publicly supporting the Paris Agreement — have actively opposed government policies to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, especially the phase-out internal combustion engines, Influence Map said.

“Japanese auto giants Toyota Motor Corp, Honda Motor Co and Nissan Motor Co are especially far off the mark, with non-polluting cars accounting for only 14, 18 and 22%, respectively, of their planned production in 2029,’’ the report said.

“South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co, US manufacturer Ford Motor Co and France’s Renault SA — with 27, 28 and 31% of their global fleets projected to be electric in seven years — are only marginally more on track.’’

The standout exception is Tesla Inc, a “pure player” manufacturer that has only ever made electric cars and trucks.

“Almost all automakers are failing to keep pace with the transition to zero emissions,” said Influence Map programme manager Ben Youriev. “Those lagging the furthest behind are also the most negative when it comes to climate policy advocacy.”

Ford, Stellantis NV, Volkswagen AG and BMW AG come closer to the 52% threshold for compatibility with Paris temperature target, with 36 to 46% of their fleets planned to be electric in 2029.

Besides Tesla, only Mercedes-Benz AG — at 56% — is projecting a transition in keeping with that target.

To evaluate automaker trajectories, Influence Map cross-references different datasets.

Researchers used the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) scenario for decarbonising the transport sector rapidly enough to not jeopardise the 1.5C goal, which would need 57.5% of all cars produced in 2030 to be electric.

The IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 report also assumes the share of renewables in global electricity generation would be about 60% in 2030.

The Influence Map report then compared this goal with IHS Markit production forecasts to 2029, corresponding to a 52% share of electric vehicles in the IEA schema.

Collectively, the combined global production of battery electric vehicles by all automakers is forecast to only reach 32% by 2029.

That means the auto industry would need to boost production of zero-emission cars by 80% in order to hit the IEA 2030 production target.

The report findings reveal the critical impact of government policy on the pace of the transition away from internal combustion engines, which account for around 16% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the European Union, which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, Toyota’s produced fleet is projected to be 50% electric by 2029.

But in the United States, where fuel emissions standards are less stringent, that figure is only 4%.

Similarly, Ford’s EU-based production is forecast to be 65% electric by 2029 — nearly double it’s global average.

One pension fund with shares in Toyota and Volkswagen expressed concern about the Influence of the Map findings.

“As investors, we are concerned with the picture painted which confirms that some companies in the auto industry are placing themselves on the wrong side of history when actively opposing much needed climate change-related rules and regulations,” Anders Schelde, chief information officer of Denmark’s AkademikerPension, with $20 billion of assets under management, told AFP.